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36 Professionally Speaking | March 2017 nine per cent. Although up from four per cent in 2015, unemployment now stands at just half the peak rate of 18 per cent in 2014 among French-language graduates. French as a Second Language (FSL) teachers enjoy the most positive employ- ment outcomes. At just five per cent un- employment, their Ontario hiring rate con- tinues to strongly outpace new FSL teacher job success two and three years ago. New English-language teachers in 2016 continue to be challenged in an Ontario job market still crowded from years of oversupply. About one in three new English-program graduates lacking FSL qualifications are unemployed, and another one in four say they could not get as many teaching days as they wanted during their first year of teaching. Just two in five are fully employed in the first year as licensed teachers. Intermediate-Senior graduates from English-language programs report less first-year unemployment (24 per cent) than those from Primary-Junior (37 per cent) and Junior-Intermediate (34 per cent) programs. Subject qualifications also make a significant difference. Those with math, sciences and/or computer studies in their qualifications report just 16 per cent unemployment compared with 28 per cent among English-language Intermediate-Senior grads without these qualifications, French or FSL. There were over 2,400 more Ontario teachers licensed in 2015 than the annual average for the preceding three years. The small increase in first-year teacher unemployment in 2016 may be an effect of increased competition among this larger new entrant cohort. About half of the 2,400 newly licensed teachers in 2015, however, did not renew their College memberships in 2016 and probably did not seek teaching jobs in the 2015–16 school year. This likely moderated the potential job market impact of the jump in new entrants. The improving trends for most job success indicators of the past few years slowed in 2016 but did not reverse. The balance of new teacher supply and teaching job vacancies in Ontario will be radically different through the end of this decade, compared with the annual teacher surpluses over the past 10 years. Rather than 10,000 to 12,000 newly licensed teachers each year, annual new licenses will settle in at about 5,000 after the 2016 transitional new program year. A moderate rise is anticipated in annual Ontario teacher retirements from about 4,500 to about 5,000 in the 2008–11 2012–14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 12,138 9,987 12,399 3,600 5,390 5,340 4,790 NEW TEACHERS LICENSED ANNUALLY (BY YEAR) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR NEW ENGLISH-LANGUAGE INTERMEDIATE-SENIOR TEACHERS WITH MATH, SCIENCES, AND/OR COMPUTER STUDIES QUALIFICATIONS VS. THOSE WITHOUT THESE QUALIFICATIONS, FRENCH OR FSL HIGHER EDUCATION QUALITY COUNCIL OF ONTARIO STUDY In November 2016, the Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario, a government advisory agency, published a study on labour market trends and outlooks for six of Ontario's regulated professions. Highlights from its research on elemen- tary and secondary education include: • New teacher supply exceeded hiring requirements by 26,300 teachers between 2006 and 2011. • Job markets for new teachers will improve significantly in the years ahead as supply remains restricted and replacement demands rise. • The current oversupply of teachers may take up to five years to resolve. • Elementary school enrolment will begin to rise in 2017 because of a population increase, and the pace of growth will accelerate over time causing signifi- cant further demand after 2020. • Annual teacher hiring requirements will rise from 6,000 in 2015 to more than 8,000 by 2024. • The excess supply rate of Ontario teachers will fall steadily from a peak of 20 per cent in 2015 to just seven per cent by 2025. • With teacher education applica- tions much lower than in previous years, the next challenge will be convincing young people to pursue a teaching career. • The skewed age profile of Ontario teachers will lead to a bulge in retirements in the 2030s, which may bring with it another general teacher shortage. 2015 NEW TEACHER NUMBERS In 2015, many grads of Ontario facul- ties from previous years who had not become College members decided to obtain their teaching licences prior to the implementation of the two-year Enhanced Teacher Education Program. This one-year bump in new members did not affect the job market trends significantly; many of the individuals who already deferred teaching careers did not renew their Ontario teaching licences in 2016. % % VS.